State House up for grabs | Inside Politics

If you don't believe one vote matters, think again.

If you don’t believe one vote matters, think again.

While Federal Way may not always be important, this year it is one of only a few legislative districts that could determine control of the State House of Representatives, and it could be by as little as one vote. Incumbent Republican state legislators Linda Kochmar and Teri Hickel are both locked in very tight battles with Democratic challengers Mike Pellicciotti and Kristine Reeves. The Hickel-Reeves race is a statistical tie, and Kochmar actually came out of the primary trailing Pellicciotti.

As an old saying goes, “History is written by the winners.” And there will be several opportunities to make history when the Legislature convenes in January. But who will the winners be? Power dictates what happens in Olympia. If you have power, you control the dialogue, message and result.

Currently, the Democrats barely control the House, 50-48, along with the governor’s office. Republicans control the Senate 26-23. But as recently as 2008, the Democrats firmly controlled the House 63-35 and the Senate 32-17. Over time, Republicans have chipped away at that lead, and they went into this election season believing this was the year they could take control of the House.

Both parties identified districts that could be competitive and possibly change hands. The 30th Legislative District in Federal Way was not high on that list, but it is now.

One of the races with more initial interest was next door in Auburn-Sumner. With Democratic incumbent Chris Hurst stepping down, Republicans felt they could take his seat in the 31st District. Hurst was an Independent Democrat and the Senate seat was held by Republican Pam Roach. The other House seat was also held by a Republican. Based on primary results, the goal appears achievable: Republican Phil Fortunato was leading, and the combined Republican vote was over 54 percent. Some intramural politics are occurring, and Roach’s involvement has added some controversy, and there may be more to come. But it still looks like a gain for the Republicans.

North, in the 44th District around Everett, longtime Democratic incumbent Hans Dunshee was appointed to the Snohomish County Council and vacated his seat to former Sheriff and County Executive John Lorick. With the other House seat held by Republican Mark Harmsworth, Republicans thought they could take the seat. Lorick had just been defeated for executive and looked vulnerable. And he may yet be, but during the primary he took 51 percent and looks like he’ll hold on.

On the Kitsap peninsula in the 26th District, incumbent Republican Jesse Young got a challenge when former Democratic House member Larry Seaquist dropped his bid for Superintendent of Public Instruction and filed against Young. Seaquist is a former legislator, and this race is a toss-up going into November.

In the 28th District, the Senate seat and one House seat are held by Republicans, and incumbent Democrat Christine Kilduff was thought to be vulnerable. But she held her ground in the primary at 51 percent and seems likely to keep the seat.

In District 5, Republican state Rep. Chad Magendanz is stepping up to run for the state Senate. The vacancy he left could be a pick-up, as the combined Democratic vote was 54 percent with Darcy Burner leading the way.

The 17th District in Vancouver always seems to produce close races. Republican House member Linda Wilson is vacating her seat to run for the state Senate seat currently held by Republican Don Benton, who is stepping down. Several candidates stepped forward from both parties. The combined Democratic vote in the primary was 51 percent, while the combined Republican vote was 48 percent. The Senate race between Wilson and former Democratic state Rep. Tim Probst will draw a big turnout. Wilson had a slight lead in the primary, and this is a district where Donald Trump may have an impact as Benton is Trump’s state coordinator. This is potentially a pick-up for the Democrats in the House by Sam Kim.

If Kim wins, the scorecard temporarily looks like Democrats 51-47. If he loses, we stay at 50-48. But that depends on each party defending the rest of their seats, and we still have a toss-up in the 26th District. If Young wins, the number is the same. If Seaquist wins, it’s a gain for the Democrats.

Which brings us back to the importance of your vote in the Federal Way election.

On election night, there will be upsets no one saw coming, and the election here in Federal Way may keep the Democrats in charge by two to four votes if Reeves and Pellicciotti win. Or we could have the same score. We could even have a 50-50 tie. But if upsets do occur, wins by Kochmar and Hickel could put the Republicans in charge of the House.

Best early guess: Democrats retain control. But that, of course, is why we actually have elections.

It’s that close and it’s that important. Your vote counts!