Elections for 2012 and 2013 have already started. But before we start speculating on those races, there is a more immediate question: Who is going to win next Tuesday?
As always I consulted my panel of experts, which was comprised of several well connected political types and two guys standing on a street corner.
In Federal Way, Susan Honda will win over Roger Flygare for election to the city council. Honda emerged from the primary with a big lead and appears to have made a tactical decision to be cautious in her positions to maintain her lead. It may have cost her The Mirror endorsement, but she will still win. Flygare just had too much ground to make up.
Dini Duclos is a strong candidate and will be re-elected to the council over Kieth Tyler. Tyler had some interesting land use ideas, but didn’t have the money to get his message out.
The closest race will be between incumbent Jack Dovey and challenger Bob Celski. Conventional wisdom says Dovey will win, although this should be the closest of the three council races.
Claire Wilson will be elected to the school board over Gail Crabtree, and Danny Peterson will win over Liz Drake. Drake has stopped campaigning to take a new job as a principal in the school district.
Mark Thompson will be re-elected to the South King Fire and Rescue board of commissioners over Timolin Abrom, and James Fossos will win over Jerry Galland — although Galland did strike a chord with the public on the SKFR budget issues.
In the race for the board at Lakehaven Utility District, incumbent Tim McClain will win over Louise Wessel.
In Auburn, John Hayes Holman will upset incumbent Virginia Haugen for a seat on the city council, and Wayne Osborne will defeat Frank Lonergan for election to an open council seat.
The Bellevue City Council races have become the battlefield for the city’s future growth as powerful development interests have lined up on different sides. Incumbents Claudia Balducci and John Chelminiak along with John Stokes are backed by Wright-Runstad, while Kemper Freeman and Bob Wallace are supporting Aaron Laing, Michelle Hilhorst and Patti Mann. Freeman and Wallace are also financing an independent campaign expenditure program to help their candidates. The stakes and the dollars are huge. You may recall that Chelminiak is the councilman who was attacked by a bear several months ago. Look for Stokes, Balducci and Chelminiak to win in close elections.
At the Port of Seattle, incumbents Bill Bryant and Gael Tarleton will win.
At the county level, Sherril Huff will be re-elected director of elections. Lloyd Hara is unopposed for assessor.
In the biggest King County Council race, longtime incumbent Jane Hague looks like she will survive in a close race with Richard Mitchell. Mitchell may be the best challenger that Hague has faced in a long time, but her switch to support the car tabs fee appears to have undercut one of Mitchell’s main arguments.
In West Seattle, Joe McDermott will defeat Diana Toledo to retain his county seat.
Initiatives I-1125 on toll roads, I-1163 on caregivers and I-1183 on state liquor stores appear likely they will all fail.
Up in Snohomish County, Aaron Reardon will be re-elected county executive after a hard battle with Seattle Police officer Mike Hope.
Post this on your refrigerator and we’ll see how my expert advisers did. Don’t worry about how much the two guys on the street corner influenced my picks. They were really only interested in I-1183 anyway.
