Republicans control the state Senate with a 26-23 margin, and they have long believed that 2016 was the year for them to take control of the state House of Representatives and the governor’s office.

But pundits and pollsters say there could be a big blue wave this fall that will wash over state politics and keep the Democrats in control of both the House and the governor’s mansion.

But what about the Senate? Will Republicans be able to retain the majority or will Democrats ride the blue wave to victory there as well?

There are only a few seats in play that will determine who’s in control come January.

In the 5th Legislative District, incumbent Democrat Mark Mullett, who won 50.69 percent of the vote in the primary, is being challenged by Republican state Rep. Chad Magendanz. Magendanz gave up his House seat to make the run and took 49.31 percent of the vote. It’s close, but it looks like Mullett will hang on.

In the 10th District, incumbent Republican Barbara Bailey took 51.48 percent in the primary but is being pressed by Democrat Angie Homola, who pulled in 48.52 percent. It again looks like the incumbent will hold on, although some lobbyists think an upset is possible here.

Another race to watch is the 17th District in Vancouver, where former House member Democrat Tim Probst is running for the open seat vacated by Don Benton after Benton’s decision not to run. Probst took 49.89 percent against Republican Linda Wilson’s 50.11 percent. Lobbyists lean toward Wilson, but they also say that if the blue wave is big enough to catch Bailey then it will also catch Wilson.

The other race to watch is on Mercer Island in the 41st District, where Libertarian voters may decide who wins. Incumbent Republican Steve Litzow lives in a swing district slowly turning Democratic and was trailing Democrat Lisa Wellman 48.79 percent to Litzow’s 47.29 percent. But the Libertarian candidate took almost 4 percent, enough to determine the winner if they all break the same way. If they split, Wellman may give Democrats a win.

In the 1st District, Republican Mindie Wirth took 40 percent to Democrat Guy Palumbo’s 31 percent. Democrats need to keep the seat held by retiring state Sen. Rosemary McAuliffe. While Wirth led in the primary, the Democratic vote total was close to 60 percent, which suggests that Palumbo will prevail in November and keep the seat in the Democratic column.

If the incumbents hold on in the 5th and 10th and the Democrats successfully defend McAuliffe’s seat with Palumbo, the balance stays the same. The race between Probst and Wilson in Vancouver and between Litzow and Wellman on Mercer Island will determine control of the state Senate. If both Democrats win they take control. If they split, Republicans stay in control by one vote.

One last thing to think about: What if 30th District Republican Sen. Mark Miloscia is elected state auditor? His position would be filled by appointment of the King and Pierce County Councils. They would appoint a Republican, since Miloscia is a Republican, and whomever is chosen could make the difference in control of the upper chamber. The appointee would face huge odds in keeping the seat in a special election next year! Some politicians are already wondering who would be appointed and who would run if Miloscia were to win.

But the blue wave may make the discussion unnecessary.

Don’t you just love politics? We haven’t even finished this election and people are already thinking about the next one!

Federal Way resident Bob Roegner is the former mayor of Auburn. He can be reached at bjroegner@comcast.net.