With several incumbents choosing to retire or run for a different office, the Aug. 2 primary ballot is crowded with new candidates for statewide office.
The primary will reduce the candidates for each position to the top two in total votes, both of whom will advance to the general election, with the top two not necessarily being a Democrat and a Republican. As always, money and familiarity will be key to who goes forward to November.
After consulting many experts, along with scratching my head and flipping coins, here are my best guesses of who will survive:
The race for United States Senator will pit Democratic incumbent Patty Murray against Republican challenger Chris Vance. You have to admire Vance’s willingness to stand on his values and not endorse his party’s candidate for president, Donald Trump, but it will cost him votes he can’t really afford to lose, particularly since Vance has raised only $293,000 and Murray has $11.4 million!
Longtime Congressman Jim McDermott is not running for re-election in the 7th District, and each group in this true melting pot of Seattle has it’s own favored candidate. Since Republicans don’t have the numbers to make an impact, the top two will be Democrats. Watch Brady Walkinshaw, who has been endorsed by Barney Frank; Pramila Jayapal, who is supported by Bernie Sanders; County Council member Joe McDermott; and former Burien Mayor Arun Jhaveri. The top two are likely to be Walkinshaw and Jayapal. In all other congressional races the incumbents will move safely on to the general election. But take note of the race in the 9th District with incumbent Adam Smith. Smith does not appear in any danger of losing his position, but his district has been reshaped into a minority-majority constituency and the race actually appears to be a prelude, testing Smith’s vulnerability to a future candidate. Think Seattle City Council member Bruce Harrell in two years. Smith is being challenged on both the right and the left by Republican Doug Basler and by former state representative and fellow Democrat Jesse Wineberry. The important numbers in this race are how the votes split.
Incumbent Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee continues to outraise and outpoll Republican challenger Bill Bryant and everyone else. Inslee has raised $7.1 million to Bryant’s $2.3 million. Both will advance to the general and leave nine other challengers behind.
With Lt. Governor Brad Owen deciding to retire, this race is crowded. The lieutenant governor’s main job is to preside over the state Senate when the Legislature is in session, and to serve as acting governor when the real governor is out of state or unavailable. The job description became an issue when Cyrus Habib, a new Democratic state Senator from Bellevue with lofty ambitions and the biggest war chest at $626,247, started a debate by suggesting the position could be used to “veto” items he felt were unconstitutional by not signing them. Democratic State Sens. Steve Hobbs and Karen Fraser are more seasoned in the ways of the Senate but have raised only $372,372 and $160,654 respectively. On the Republican side, Phillip Yin has raised $154,283. Habib and Yin seem likely to advance, but in the top-two format, if Democrats turn out, Hobbs or Frasier could join the final in place of Yin.
Incumbent Secretary of State Kim Wyman, the only Republican to hold a statewide office on the “left” coast, and her Democratic challenger, former Seattle City Council member Tina Podlodowski, will advance to the general election. Interestingly, Podlodowski has outraised Wyman $359,419 to $318,038. Wyman is well-respected and Podlodowski has an uphill battle. But with only a few of us old enough to remember when Podlodowski held public office, the professionals will watch the vote totals to see whether the money, party affiliation and a Seattle address will translate to a close race.
With the incumbent not running, the field for State Treasurer has five candidates with limited name familiarity to most voters. Republican Michael Waite has raised the most money but has never run for office before. Republican Duane Davidson is the Benton County Treasurer and received the endorsement of the Seattle Times, but he’s only raised $22,833. Among the Democrats, state Sen. Marko Liias from Mukilteo has raised the most at $66,190, ahead of former Port Commissioner Alec Fisken at $29,090 and John Comerford at $43,181. There’s no front-runner in this race; the most likely to advance are Davidson and Liias, but Fisken and Comerford, who are known in Seattle, could surprise.
With incumbent State Auditor Troy Kelley focused on his legal battles, this race is wide open. The front-runner is attorney Jeff Sprung, who’s raised $266,554 and has only spent about half of it, leaving plenty for the general election. Sprung has amassed an impressive list of endorsements but has limited name familiarity to the average voter outside Seattle, making fundraising critical. Republican State Sen. Mark Miloscia was in session with the Legislature and was unable to raise money until after adjournment. Still, Miloscia, who ran four years ago as a Democrat, has raised $81,476. Pierce County Executive Pat McCarthy is well-known in her home area, which may help balance out her late start – she’s raised $76,770. Will she and Sprung split the Democratic vote and vault Miloscia into the lead? Or could Democratic turnout move two Democrats forward? Best guess: Sprung and Miloscia.
Attorney General Bob Ferguson has only token opposition and can start planning his expected run for governor in 2020.
Commissioner of Public Lands is another office where the incumbent has decided to retire. It also presents another opportunity for two Democrats to move forward. Democratic front-runner Hilary Franz is a former Bainbridge Island City Council member and is the Executive Director of Futurewise – she’s about as well-connected as you can get in the environmental arena. She’s raised the most money at $153,257. Fellow Democrat and Seattle University Associate Dean Karen Porterfield has raised $109,347, Democratic King County Councilmember David Upthegrove has raised $112,381, and former Spokane Mayor Mary Verner, another Democrat, has raised $23,447, which is almost as much as Republican Steve McLaughlin’s $24,924. Unless Republican voters notice that they actually have a candidate in the race or decide a Democrat from Spokane is close enough, watch for the final two to come from Franz, Porterfield or Upthegrove.
Superintendent of Public Instruction is a non-partisan position with the incumbent, Randy Dorn, not seeking re-election. State Rep. Chris Reykdal has raised the most money at $137,816, but Erin Jones and Robin Fleming can tout their educational experience and both have worked in the Superintendent’s Office. Jones received the Seattle Times endorsement and has raised $86,253, with Fleming at $40,673. Reykdal and Jones appear most likely to advance.
Democratic Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler will face Republican Richard Schrock in November.
It’s an old truism that money is the mother’s milk of politics – The person with the most money usually wins, particularly where there’s no incumbent. Voters, don’t just go by who looks good in a flyer left at your door or who sounds good on a television commercial. These are real issues and a lot of new faces. Do your homework.
Federal Way resident Bob Roegner is the former mayor of Auburn. He can be reached at bjroegner@comcast.net.
