2009 Legislature: Watch that political sausage

Welcome to the 2009 edition of Washington’s citizen government.

If you’ve never been to Olympia when the Legislature is in session, you should go. It is a wonderful experience full of pageantry, high-minded idealism, learned debate about the public’s business — and provides many reasons to feel confident about the form of government you read about in civics class.

On the other hand, if you “really knew” what was going on, it might scare you a little bit. As an old political saying goes, “There are two things the public should never see being made: Sausage and laws!” That’s because, while the end product may be OK, what went into getting it that way may not be as attractive.

Last week, there was talk of bipartisan cooperation, although Republican legislators seem to like Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire’s budget a whole lot better than her fellow Democrats. Don’t expect the bi-partisan tone to last very long because each side has different goals for the session.

The Democrats want to pass a budget and get out of town with a minimum of political exposure while not making their political base too unhappy. So with 58 percent of the budget untouchable for various legal reasons, and a $6 billion shortfall that hits their supporters very hard, they are already talking about taxes. Since they don’t have the votes to pass a tax increase, and don’t really want that vote on their record anyway, they will likely punt a tax package with politically appealing programs to the public for a vote. At the same time, they will put unattractive but necessary programs in the base budget. This, of course, makes Republicans very happy.

Since the Democrats have all the power, all the Republicans have to do, as the “loyal opposition,” is present reasonable alternatives and keep repeating “no taxes.” Their goal is to start building a record toward the 2010 and 2012 elections and a return to power.

Next year’s session will be short and not much will happen, so this is the session to score points that they can use later. The budget will be a chess board with education, transportation (including SR 509, SR 516, the Federal Way triangle and the viaduct), union contracts, social services, job creation, Puget Sound clean-up, flood control infrastructure, and climate change as the pawns.

Flexibility on how a federal stimulus package can be used will also play into the debate. Also, King County needs additional taxing options to solve its budget problems. Seattle will want some help on annexations to solve the White Center debate and some help with Key Arena in hopes of attracting another professional basketball team. The University of Washington’s interest in expanding its football stadium will get a lot of publicity. None of these issues will go over well with voters outside the Puget Sound area.

In short, the Democrats are in a very difficult political position. An undercurrent to all this will be maneuvering by candidates. While no one is certain, many believe Governor Gregoire will only serve four more years, then look for an appointment in a presumed second term for President Barack Obama.

Democratic House Speaker Frank Chopp is rumored by some to be interested in running for mayor of Seattle in the fall. Others note that he has been pushing a “One Washington” theme, has been traveling the state and has staff members following Eastern Washington issues. This would seem to suggest his real target is running for governor. Senate majority leader Lisa Brown (D-Spokane) has already expressed her interest. And Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna has been positioning himself for the 2012 governor race since he arrived in Olympia four years ago.

It will be a very interesting session and you might want to sit in on a couple of committee hearings. But watch for what goes on behind the scenes politically because that’s where the sausage gets made — and remember, success in November 2010 is the real goal. The January-March 2009 legislative session is only the preliminary round.

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